Last week was packed with strong signals and major central bank moves. From interest rate decisions to key inflation and consumer data, the market got a clearer picture of where the global economy is headed.
Eurozone:
● 9:00 a.m. GMT: Wages (year-over-year, Q1). Actual Figure: 3.4%, Forecast: 4.1%. Wage growth came in below expectations, pointing to softer inflation pressures, slightly bearish for the euro.
Japan:
● 3:00 a.m. GMT: Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision. Actual Figure: 0.50%, Forecast/Previous: 0.50%. Leaving rates unchanged, as expected, means markets will now shift their focus to the Bank of Japan's guidance for any clues on future policy moves or shifts in tone.
United States:
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Core Retail Sales (month-over-month, May). Actual Figure: -0.3%, Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.0%. The surprise drop in core retail sales signals weaker consumer spending, which doesn't do the US dollar any favors.
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Retail Sales (month-over-month, May). Actual Figure: -0.9%, Forecast: -0.5%, Previous: -0.1%. A steeper drop in retail sales just seals the deal. Consumer demand is clearly cooling off, and that’s piling even more pressure on the US dollar.
United Kingdom:
● 6:00 a.m. GMT: Consumer Price Index (year-over-year, May). Actual: 3.4%, Forecast: 3.3%, Previous: 3.5%. Slightly hotter-than-expected inflation may keep the Bank of England hawkish—bullish for GBP.
z:
● 9:00 a.m. GMT: Consumer Price Index (year-over-year, May). Actual Figure: 1.9%, Forecast: 1.9%, Previous: 2.2%. In-line data confirms easing inflation. Likely to keep ECB dovish—neutral to slightly bearish for EUR.
United States:
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Initial Jobless Claims. Actual Figure: 245K, Forecast: 246K, Previous: 250K. Jobless claims came in lower than expected, indicating continued labor market stability, which is a supportive factor for the U.S. dollar.
● 2:30 p.m. GMT: Crude Oil Inventories. Actual Figure: -11.473M, Forecast: -2.3M, Previous: -3.644M. A dramatic drop in oil inventories pushed prices higher, which was bullish for oil and oil-sensitive currencies.
● 6:00 p.m. GMT: Fed Interest Rate Decision. Actual Figure/Forecast/Previous: 4.50%. As anticipated, the Fed held rates steady, but all eyes are now on the forward guidance, which could shape the next big move for the US dollar.
Switzerland:
● 7:30 a.m. GMT: SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q2). Actual Figure/Forecast: 0.00%, Previous: 0.25%. Holding rates steady might cap any further upside for the Swiss franc, especially following the previous rate cut.
United Kingdom:
● 11:00 a.m. GMT: Bank of England Interest Rate Decision. Actual Figure/Forecast/Previous: 4.25%. The Bank of England held rates steady, just as expected. Now the market’s tuned in for any hints on what’s next for monetary policy and how it could steer the pound.
United States:
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (June). Forecast: -1.7, Previous: -4.0. A pickup in manufacturing activity—if it comes in as expected—could give the US dollar some boost.
Canada:
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Core Retail Sales (month-over-month, April). Forecast: -0.2%, Previous: -0.7%. A forecasted dip in retail sales might point to softer consumer demand in Canada, which could put pressure on the Canadian dollar.
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