What’s Ahead: Weekly Macroeconomic Calendar for December 22—December 26, 2025

Markets are entering a “thin market” phase ahead of Christmas. Most trading activity will be concentrated in the first half of the week, as the US releases GDP data and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which is the PCE index. Volatility on Thursday and Friday may become erratic due to extremely low liquidity.

📅 Monday, December 22

United Kingdom:
● 7:00 a.m. GMT: GDP (Year-over-Year) (Q3). Actual figure: 1.3% (Forecast: 1.3%; Previous: 1.4%). Economic growth slowed compared to the previous quarter, but the data met expectations, helping the pound avoid sharp moves.
● 7:00 a.m. GMT: GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q3). Actual figure: 0.1% (Forecast: 0.1%; Previous: 0.3%).

United States:
● 3:00 p.m. GMT: Core PCE Price Index (Year-over-Year) (October). Previous: 2.8%. The Fed’s key inflation indicator. A steady reading at 2.8% confirms persistent inflation pressures, potentially limiting further USD weakness.
● 3:00 p.m. GMT: Core PCE Price Index (Month-over-Month) (October). Previous: 0.2%.

📅 Tuesday, December 23

United States:
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q3, Final). Forecast: 3.2%; Previous: 3.8%. Final third-quarter data. A weaker-than-expected 3.2% print would amplify concerns about economic cooling and weigh on the dollar.
● 3:00 p.m. GMT: CB Consumer Confidence (December). Forecast: 91.7; Previous: 88.7. Improving consumer sentiment typically supports the stock market and consumer-related sectors.
● 8:00 GMT p.m.: New Home Sales (September). Previous: 800K. A leading indicator of housing market conditions.

📅 Wednesday, December 24

United States:
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: Initial Jobless Claims. Forecast: 220K; Previous: 224K. The final meaningful labor market release before the holidays. A decline would support the USD into the close.
● 3:30 p.m. GMT: EIA Crude Oil Inventories. Previous: -1.274M. Critical for WTI traders and the USD/CAD pair.

📅 Thursday, December 25. Christmas Day (Holiday)

Japan:
● 11:50 p.m. GMT: Industrial Production (Month-over-Month) (November). Forecast: -1.9%; Previous: 1.5%. Released into a nearly empty market, this data could trigger sharp, liquidity-driven moves in JPY pairs.

📅 Friday, December 26

UK and EU markets are closed. No major macroeconomic releases are scheduled.

📌Tips for Traders for a “Thin Market” Environment

● Liquidity caution: Institutional participation drops sharply after midday on Wednesday (December 24). Liquidity is minimal on Thursday and Friday, meaning even small orders can trigger 50–100 pip spikes.
● Spread widening: Brokers and liquidity providers often widen spreads during holiday periods. Review the algo settings and factor this in when placing tight stop-losses.
● PCE & US GDP trap: The bulk of volatility will occur on Monday and Tuesday. Significant deviations in PCE (Monday) or GDP (Tuesday) could define the USD’s direction into year-end.
● No “overstaying”: Avoid holding open positions on Thursday and Friday without stop-loss orders. In illiquid markets, price action can become irrational and ignore technical levels.
● Profit protection: If you’re sitting on profitable trades late in December, Wednesday before the holidays is often the optimal time to lock them in. Don’t risk a year’s gains on random holiday volatility.

Wishing you profitable trading, and a calm, peaceful holiday season 🎄

Best Regards,