This week is expected to be calmer compared to the previous one, when the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision sent waves of volatility through the markets. Investors will be keeping a close eye on a series of verbal interventions from top central bankers, preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, and the Swiss National Bank’s monetary policy decision.
Eurozone
3:00 p.m. GMT: Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde
United States
12:15 p.m. GMT: ADP Weekly Employment Change. Forecast: 16.30K
Eurozone
2:00 p.m. GMT: Consumer Confidence Index (September). Forecast: -16.0 | Previous figure: -15.5
Germany
7:30 p.m. GMT: Speech by Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel
Eurozone
8:00 a.m. GMT: Business Activity Data (September): Services PMI. Forecast: 51.4 | Previous figure: 51.6
Manufacturing PMI. Forecast: 52.6 | Previous figure: 52.7
S&P Global Composite PMI. Previous figure: 52.0
United States
1:45 p.m. GMT: S&P Global Business Activity Data (September):
Manufacturing PMI. Forecast: 53.4 | Previous figure: 53.9
Services PMI. Forecast: 56.0 | Previous figure: 56.5
2:30 p.m. GMT: EIA Crude Oil Inventories. Previous figure: -0.640M
Switzerland
7:30 a.m. GMT 🔥: SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q3). Forecast: 0.00% | Previous figure: 0.00%
United States
12:30 p.m. GMT: Initial Jobless Claims. Forecast: 201K | Previous figure: 196K
2:00 p.m. GMT: New Home Sales (August). Forecast: 619K | Previous figure: 607K
United Kingdom
9:15 a.m. GMT: Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey
United States
2:00 p.m. GMT: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (September). Forecast: 45.8 | Previous figure: 45.8
Central Bank Speeches (Lagarde, Nagel, Bailey): Remarks from ECB and Bank of England policymakers will set the tone and market sentiment for European currencies. Central bank rhetoric can spark local volatility, but avoid chasing impulse moves. Make sure to wait until the technical picture becomes completely clear.
PMI Readings (Wednesday): Business activity metrics across the Eurozone and the US will reveal how the real economy is performing following a cycle of rate hikes. Any significant divergence between actual readings and forecasts could trigger short-term swings in EUR/USD and US equity indices.
SNB Interest Rate Decision (Thursday): With the Swiss franc increasingly used as a funding currency for carry trades, an unchanged zero rate or comments from regulating authorities may offer solid technical trade setups across CHF pairs.
Top tip of the week: When there’s not much happening on the macro side, the market usually goes back to classic technical trading. Don’t look for complex fundamental reasons when a simple, well-defined key level does the work!
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