Earlier this week, the EUR/USD pair remained under pressure in anticipation of the central bank’s two meetings. Both the Fed and the European Central Bank are expected to hike interest rates, while the size of this hike remains open for debate.
Possible technical scenarios:
As seen from the daily chart, EUR/USD quotes failed to consolidate above 1.1032 and dropped lower. The pair has room to move toward support at 1.0930 marked with dotted lines, whereas the consolidation below it will pave the way to the south and the next target at 0.0808.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
In the first half of the week, the pair’s behavior will depend on the U.S. dollar. In the meantime, the Thursday focus of the market players will be on the ECB meeting.
The United States ADP Nonfarm Employment Change figures will be released on Wednesday at 12:15 pm GMT. The report is expected to demonstrate the creation of 150,000 jobs compared to 145,000 in March.
At 2:00 pm GMT, we are waiting for the United States ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI which is expected to go up from 51.2 to 51.8.
The results of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting will be announced at 6:00 pm GMT. During the meeting, the main interest rate is expected to be hiked from 5.0% to 5.25% In addition, the U.S. dollar may be volatile in response to the rhetoric of the Federal Reserve Board’s Chair Jerome Powell during the FOMC press conference at 9:30 pm GMT.
Intraday technical picture:
The 4H chart of the EUR/USD suggests that the further direction of quotes will depend on the pair’s behavior in terms of 1.0930. Increased volatility amid the upcoming news may result in a change in technical benchmarks.
The GBP/USD pair has been trading in the flat below multi-month highs. An exit from it is likely provided that the way the U.S. dollar reacts to this week’s fundamental news is volatile.
Possible technical scenarios:
The daily chart shows that the GBP/USD quotes failed to consolidate above the resistance of the 1.2343 - 1.2525 sideways range marked with green dotted lines. Amid these developments, the pair has enough room to move towards the support at 1.2343.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
In the first half of the week, the GBP/USD volatility will depend primarily on the U.S. dollar. The news background on Wednesday will be quite eventful, most likely, affecting the behavior and direction of the pair.
It makes sense to keep a close eye on the United States ADP Nonfarm Employment Change to be released on Wednesday at 12:15 pm GMT. The report is expected to demonstrate the creation of 150,000 jobs compared to 145,000 in March.
At 2:00 pm GMT, we are waiting for the United States ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for the month of April. It is expected to go up from 51.2 to 51.8.
At 6:00 pm GMT, the market players’ eyes will be on the results of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting where the main interest rate is expected to be hiked from 5.0% to 5.25%. At 9:30 pm GMT, the U.S. dollar may be volatile in response to the rhetoric of the Federal Reserve Board’s Chair Jerome Powell during the FOMC press conference.
Intraday technical picture:
As evidenced by the 4H chart of the GBP/USD pair, the interim support level of 1.2410 remains the immediate target to the south after consolidation below 1.2525. If it is overcome, the price will be able to continue going down.
The AUD/USD went up on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia hiked interest rates to 3.85% unexpectedly. The market players are currently waiting for the Fed’s next steps that will determine the pair’s further direction.
Possible technical scenarios:
The AUD/USD quotes retreated upwards from the support at 0.6567 marked with dotted lines and are putting the strength of 0.6669 to the test. Consolidation above it will enable the pair to continue rising to 0.6798.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
Fundamental stats from both countries are expected in the first half of the week.
Australia's Retail Sales figures will be released on Wednesday at 1:30 am GMT, with an anticipated 0.3% increase against the previous growth of 0.2%.
As far as the United States goes, we are waiting for the job market figures. In the meantime, the announcement of the results of the two-day Fed meeting will be the main event of the Wednesday’s trading session.
The United States ADP Nonfarm Employment Change stats will be released on Wednesday at 12:15 pm GMT. The April report is expected to demonstrate the creation of 150,000 jobs compared to 145,000 in March.
At 2:00 pm GMT, we are waiting for the United States ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI which is expected to go up from 51.2 to 51.8.
The results of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting will be announced at 6:00 pm GMT. The main interest rate is expected to be hiked from 5.0% to 5.25%.
The FOMC press conference will start at 9:30 pm GMT. The overall tone of the statements made will be instrumental to the behavior of the U.S. currency.
Intraday technical picture:
0.6669 has been passed as we can see in the 4H chart of the AUD/USD. The price can still pull back to it; however, if it is confirmed as support by an upward bounce, the growth is likely to continue.
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